Estimate customer value under one retention scenario
Use this tool when you want a contribution-based estimate of the revenue margin associated with an average SaaS account before churn. Enter monthly ARPA in dollars, gross margin and monthly churn as percentages, and an optional fixed dollar increase in ARPA each month. Keep every input on the same monthly basis and use assumptions for one customer segment rather than blending unlike plans.
Method and supported assumptions
This is product-defined arithmetic, not an industry-standard valuation. Let A be ARPA, m gross margin as a decimal, c monthly churn as a decimal, and e monthly account expansion. The assumed lifetime is 1 / c months. Simple LTV is A × m / c. For the expansion view, average lifetime ARPA is A + e × (lifetime - 1) / 2; estimated LTV is that average times lifetime and m.
The model assumes constant churn, margin, and dollar expansion. It does not model cohorts, contraction, acquisition cost, discounting, survival curves, or a maximum customer life.
Worked scenario and comparison
With $250 ARPA, 65% margin, 4% monthly churn, and no expansion, lifetime is 1 / 0.04 = 25 months and LTV is $4,062.50. Holding the first three inputs fixed but adding $10 of monthly expansion raises average lifetime ARPA to $370 and estimated LTV to $6,012.50; simple LTV remains $4,062.50. That gap isolates the effect of the product-defined expansion path rather than proving that expansion will occur.
A churn rate of zero is unsupported because lifetime would be unbounded; the accepted range starts at 0.01%. Negative revenue or expansion, margins outside 0%–100%, blanks, and invalid numeric values are invalid. Very small churn can produce extremely large, fragile estimates.
For a wider operating snapshot, continue with the SaaS metrics calculator. The estimate is limited to the entered assumptions and does not establish future customer behavior; it is not investment or accounting advice.